I’m a little late in getting to this. Last week I thought I could cover each division, maybe in a few parts if necessary, and have all 30 teams documented before Opening Day. Today is that day, but I’m on the National League Central, which I started with. Unable to write previews this week due to getting acclimated to Spring Term, I have now found a lull in my studies, just in time to touch on every contending team, giving predictions for each as well as projected standings.
American League Most Valuable Player: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers; .331 AVG, 43 homers, 127 rbi’s, .410 OBP
American League Cy Young: Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox; 21-8, 2.80 ERA, 235 strikeouts
American League Rookie of the Year: Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals; .290, 23 homers, 85 rbi’s, .370 OBP
National League Most Valuable Player: Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants; .315, 25 homers, 110 rbi’s, .390 OBP
National League Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Philadephia Phillies; 20-11, 2.30 ERA, 220 strikeouts
National League Rookie of the Year: Brandon Belt; .275, 27 homers, 77 rbi’s, .385 OBP
The American League East had a busy offseason. The Boston Red Sox loaded up. The New York Yankees tried to keep pace with some low-risk, high-reward veteran signings. The Tampa Bay Rays took a step back. The Baltimore Orioles made some sneakily good signings and hired a tremendous coach, Buck Showalter, and the Toronto Blue Jays are still built to contend.
Barring injury, Boston should be in the driver’s seat for the division’s crown. They have starting pitching depth, a flurry of stars in their lineup, and an improved bullpen–everything a team could ask for. The catalysts for the team are speedy outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, who missed most of 2010 with a rib injury, and starting pitchers John Lackey and Josh Beckett, and closer Jonathan Papelbon. It is unknown what these four will bring to the table. Ellsbury had a solid Spring Training, so he should be a force atop their order if his injury is truly behind him, but Lackey, Beckett, and Papelbon struggled in 2010 and without their production Boston could have an underwhelming season.
Lackey lacked consistent control last season, but trusted his offspeed pitches enough. If he can locate his pitches he should rebound. For Beckett and Papelbon, two pitchers in love with their fastballs, relying more on their offspeed pitches is key. Beckett has a terrific curveball, and Papelbon has an effective changeup. Losing predictability could mean excellent seasons for them.
The Red Sox lineup is dangerous enough top-to-bottom to pick up for Lackey, Beckett, and Papelbon if the trio struggles, but time and time again it’s been proven that pitching wins championships.
I think the Orioles can really surprise some people. Showalter has already stirred the pot by calling out Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein and Yankees shortstop and captain Derek Jeter, and his Orioles seem to have a positive outlook adding power threats like JJ Hardy, Vladimir Guerrero, Mark Reynolds and Derek Lee to a team that has a lot of young, proven talent. With them the holdup is pitching. They have struggled year-to-year to put together a solid staff. This season should be no different, as they surprisingly didn’t make many additions to the rotation, but with a better offense they should increase their win total and possibly leapfrog teams like the Rays and Jays.
American League East Projected Finish: Red Sox, Yankees (three games back), Orioles, Blue Jays, Rays
The American League Central, National League West, and National League Central also have many teams that can contend, which should make for an exciting season and a down-to-the-wire finish in September. In the AL Central the Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, and Minnesota Twins will once again jockey for positioning throughout, as each team has the adequate mix of accomplished veterans and vibrant youth as well as impressive rotations and bullpens. Each team is capable of winning 90 games or more.
The return of Twins first baseman and former Most Valuable Player runner-up Justin Morneau could further sway the division in Minnesota’s direction. He battled concussions last season and missed the season’s final months. The Twins somehow continued to contend and win the division by a comfortable margin. Now, with his insertion into the starting lineup for Minnesota’s opener, they add a 29-year-old player who has four 100-plus rbi seasons and who managed to club 18 homers and drive in 56 rbi’s in just 81 games last season. Pairing him with former MVP Joe Mauer in the middle of the lineup gives the Twins their deadly one-two punch back. Healthy, anything short of another division title would surprise me.
American League Central Projected Finish: Twins, Tigers (two games back), White Sox, Indians, Royals
Perhaps the most uninteresting division is the American League West. Even still, three teams are projected to be in the hunt: The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the Oakland Athletics, and the 2010 World Series representative Texas Rangers.
The Angels had a disappointing offseason, in part because they missed out on current Red Sox Carl Crawford, who was their primary target. Anaheim is a team on the decline, having suffered to their first losing season since 2003 with an 80-82 record and not doing much in the offseason to reverse course. To compensate for the loss of Crawford to Boston, they traded for Vernon Wells and his hideously lucrative and long contract. Even if Wells does play well with a change in scenery, Anaheim doesn’t seem to have enough pieces in the lineup and rotation to keep up with the Rangers and possibly the A’s in the division.
As long as Billy Beane is the General Manager in Oakland, the Athletics will be intriguing. He isn’t one to spend money, but continuously makes thrifty moves to benefit his team. He has taken a liking to signing veterans, and this year’s crop features Hideki Matsui, the former Yankee slugger who may have a 25-homer, 80-rbi season left in him.
Their lineup isn’t flashy and doesn’t have the power to put up five or six runs per game. This is why their intrigue begins and ends with their rotation. Beane has put a lot of work in over the years building up his team’s starting rotation, drafting well while also smartly acquiring arms. This staff, anchored by 18-game winner Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez, and Dallas Braden, was brilliant and somehow flew under the radar. Of these four, Braden had the highest ERA at 3.50.
The starting pitchers in all had a 3.47 ERA, and their closer, Andrew Bailey, has the potential to be dominant. Teams like the San Diego Padres have won in lieu of a lacking offense because of outstanding pitching. Oakland can contend for their division’s title, as long as they receive good situational hitting.
Texas is their polar opposite. They have the offense but in losing Cliff Lee they lost a pitcher they desperately needed to contend this year and beyond. C.J. Wilson, who played second-fiddle to Lee, is ace-material and will excel as their top starter, but there aren’t many pitchers behind him who can be counted on to throw seven strong innings every fifth day. Signing Adrian Beltre to improve their offense should help make up for the lack of pitching, but Texas enters the season very vulnerable to being leapfrogged.
American League West Projected Finish: Texas, Oakland (three games back), Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Seattle Mariners
The National League West is led by 2010′s World Series champion, the San Francisco Giants, a team that didn’t lose much this offseason. The Giants should be the Athletics model. In 2010 they were for the most part based around excellent pitching and clutch hitting.
They let World Series MVP Edgar Renteria go via free agency, but replaced him with an equally talented albeit equally aged hitter in Miguel Tejada. They kept two immensely important hitters, Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff. These two players brought a certain mindset to the team that was certainly energizing. They won’t hit 40 homers and drive in 100 runs, but they will produce consistently and collect important hits when it matters. With Buster Posey, who was tremendous during his rookie season, Brandon Belt, who is expected to be tremendous during his rookie season, and an incredibly slimmed Pablo Sandoval to go along with the aforementioned three as well as their dominating rotation, San Francisco should sit atop the division once more.
The Colorado Rockies in particular will have a lot of say in whether this takes place. They have perhaps the most dangerous duo in baseball, Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki. They led the Rockies down the stretch in 2010, both taking up the sport by storm in the later months especially. They combined to hit 59 homers and drive in 212 rbis while batting .325. These two will undoubtedly put up the same numbers this season, but they will need plenty of help in the offensive department to make up for the underwhelming rotation behind ace Ubaldo Jimenez.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are a team to look out for. They always seem to hang around in divisional races but haven’t been able to get over the hump recently. They have the pitching staff to compete, and it’s one of the better rotations in baseball in terms of how many quality starts will be made. Young Clayton Kershaw heads the staff, with veterans Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda, and Jon Garland rounding out the five. They ate innings last season and had ERA’s under four, and can be counted on to do it again.
National League West Projected Finish: San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies (1 1/2 games back), Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres
There will be a similar battle at the top of the National League Central. Already having documented the outlook of the St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, and Pittsburgh Pirates, there’s only the cursed Chicago Cubs and confusing Houston Astros to chronicle.
The Cubs are built as they are every year. They are talented in every facet, but they tend to underachieve with the Billy Goat cackling at their watching the postseason on television after 162 games of disappointment. Ace Carlos Zambrano appears to be a changed man, and if he keeps his attitude in check under new manager Mike Quade the Cubs could make some noise and silence the Billy Goat. He makes the team’s car run. And it’s worth mentioning that former Oregon State Beaver infielder Darwin Barney is going to be their starting second baseman, beating out Jeff Baker and Blake Dewitt for the job. If he hits as he is capable, an already potent offense would improve greatly.
While the Cubs have a direction, the Astros don’t. They are at a crossroads, without enough young players to qualify as a youth movement and not enough good veterans to qualify as a potential contender.
National League Central Projected Finish: Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers (three games back), Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros
The Philadelphia Phillies are projected to win the National League East, but I wouldn’t pencil them in quite yet. They have a dominating pitching staff, headed by Halladay, Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels. With that rotation not many runs need to be scored for the Phillies to be successful. They have a potent lineup, but they are replacing Jayson Werth with an unknown, currently injured rookie Domonic Brown, and then there’s the uncertainty surrounding ever-important and injured shortstop Jimmy Rollins. The third reason for not jumping the gun on Philadelphia? The dangerous Atlanta Braves.
Atlanta won on Opening Day, with ace Derek Lowe combing with four relievers to shut out Washington. The Braves didn’t lose anyone integral through free agency or trade, and managed to add power-hitting second baseman Dan Uggla. Their rotation is similar to Boston’s, with an enviable mix of young arms and veterans.
National League East Projected Finish: Braves, Phillies (two games back), Florida Marlins (six games back), New York Mets, Washington Nationals
All six divisional races should be close. There are that many quality teams, that many up-and-coming players, and that many excellent veterans. Baseball is finally here.
Playoff Predictions:
American League Wildcard: Yankees
National League Wildcard: Phillies
American League Championship Series: Red Sox versus Twins
National League Championship Series: Braves versus Giants
World Series: Red Sox versus Braves
World Series Champion: Braves
(Photo: Daylife)
Popularity: 2%
Author and owner of the Swamigp’s Sports Blog, Nick loves to write about his hometown Portland Trail Blazers as well as the Boston Red Sox. 
For this to come true the Twins would have to beat the Yankees in the ALDS. That is what I am hoping. Personally I dont’ think that the Yankees will get in because of their poor starting pitching against easily the toughest teams in the league.