With last night’s thrilling 4-3 victory over the Colorado Avalanche, the Leafs have now won three straight as they head to Detroit to wrap up their 3 game road trip on Saturday. The win gave the Leafs 78 points, tied with the Carolina Hurricanes and just 3 back of the 8th place Buffalo Sabres. The problem is that the Sabres and Hurricanes have two games in hand on the Leafs.
This is where the Southeast division comes in. The Leafs are going to need some help from the teams in the Southeast division, as all will play a major role in what happens in the weeks ahead. Perhaps the most influential will be the Tampa Bay Lightning, who have 3 games remaining against the Carolina Hurricanes, including a home and home set this weekend, as well as a match up against the Sabres later on in the schedule. The second major player will be the Washington Capitals, who play the Hurricanes and Sabres once each, while playing host to the Leafs in a pivotal match up.
The Florida Panthers play the Sabres tonight, while the Atlanta Thrashers match up with the Hurricanes one last time in April, furthering the southern influence in the Leafs playoff odds. Altogether, 10 games on the remaining schedule will feature Southeast division teams playing against one of the teams in the race, the most of any division. The Hurricanes and Sabres also play each other on April 3rd, while the Leafs will have a crucial 4 point game next week as they play host to Buffalo on Tuesday for the final time this season, having won the last two against them.
Should the Leafs lose just one of their remaining 7 games, not an easy task with Detroit, Boston, Buffalo, Montreal, Washington and New Jersey on the schedule, they will end up with 90 points. Most analysts are predicting that 92 will be the cut off, so the Leafs have to hope that the Sabres play sub .500 hockey from here on out. The Sabres need 11 more points to reach 92, and with 9 games to do it, they would need a winning percentage of just .611%. The Hurricanes would need a winning percentage of .722%, while the Leafs would have to win .781% of their games.
All three clubs have winning records over their last 10, but the Leafs playoff picture will become a lot clearer after Tuesday night’s matchup against the Sabres. Should the Sabres win both of their weekend games while the Leafs drop their tilt against the Wings, then Tuesday night’s game may not even matter as the Leafs will be 7 points off the pace by then. However, for the Leafs to even be this close with 7 games remaining is an accomplishment in an of itself.
Since January 1st, the New Year’s Day game against the Ottawa Senators that featured the debut of Leafs goalie James Reimer, the Leafs have gone 22-12-7, for a .621 win %. Since the all star break, when James Reimer was named the starter for the Leafs, they have gone 15-6-5, for a .673% win percentage. Over that time they have dealt key veterans like Francois Beauchemin and Tomas Kaberle, while sending Kris Versteeg to the Flyers for draft picks. They were unable to add any pieces at the deadline and have lost Colby Armstrong for the season after he broke his foot blocking a shot.
The Leafs have been the third best team in the NHL since the break, with only the Devils and the San Jose Sharks earning more points. While the task ahead of them is daunting, and they’ll have to play close to perfect, this team is proving they have what it takes to win, and the players, much like the fans, continue to dream that impossible dream. If it is to be realized however, the Leafs will have to count on a southern uprising to lend them a hand.
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Born and raised in Northern Ontario but currently living in Toronto, Tyler wouldn't have it any other way. Home to his two favourite sports teams, Tyler revels in the day to day sports experience that is Toronto. 